• Generating Generations: Modeling Exponential Growth

  • Peak

  • Climate
  • Peak2
  • Ql
  • Screening Mammography

    Oil and Peak Oil Etc

  • http://barzilai.org/mentor/lewis/oil-barrels.html (and Solutions)
  • http://barzilai.org/mentor/lewis/burn-oil-calculations

  • More Oil? How much time would it buy? how much 'extra time' before peak if more reserves? Not much

    Wall St Stuff

  • How Much Wall Street has regurned AFTER inflation: about 7%/year
  • How much would $1,000 invested in Wall St be worth in 900 years?
  • AFTER adjusting for inflation: $(1,000)*(1.07)^900
  • This equals 2.78868 * 10^29 in today's dollars.

  • 1 ounce of gold: about $680/ounce
  • 1 kilogram = 35.2739619 ounces
  • 1 kilogram of gold: about $24,000 = 2.4 * 10^4
  • Mass of Earth = 5.9742 * 10^24 kilograms
  • If the Earth was made of gold: $1.265 * 10^29 (don't need 900yrs; about 888 yrs)
    For April 2008, gold costs about $927/ounce; but you'd need to wait only another 5 years to make up for this since (1.07)5 is about 1.4, which is larger than (927/680) which is about 1.36

  • Q: Will Wall St, our GDP, etc, really grow at 7%-after-inflation for the next 900 years? For the next 300 years?

  • Q: will the Dow hit 1,000,000 by the end of the century? A: It will if it grows at (1,000,000/13,000)^(1/93) ≈ (77)^(1/93) or by a non-inflation adjusted ≈ 4.7% / year

    Can the Earth handle a 77-times-larger economy and economic activity than today's? (If so, could it hande 77^2 or one 5,929 times as big, in 2 centuries?)

    On the other hand, can people this century save enough for retirement if Wall St. goes up by "only" an average of 4.7% before inflation (so a miniscule return after inflation)? Seems doubtful. Is there a way out?

  • Doesn't have all the answers but a great short (80pp) book: The Ecology of Money.
  • Ordering The Ecology of Money
  • Free copy online in chapters